Alcoa

Alcoa has been a key beneficiary of higher aluminum prices driven by roughly 9% of global production lost to Middle East war-related shutdowns. UBS upgraded Alcoa to buy and forecasts further upside in its Australian-listed shares, while Citi calls the market the most bullish in decades and sees prices reaching $4,000/t or higher. UBS expects Alcoa to move from net debt to net cash this year with cash rising to about $1.8 billion, supporting potential increased shareholder returns. Market analysts say supply deficits over the next 1–2 years are likely to keep prices and premiums elevated despite softer demand and high Chinese inventories. » More on forbes.com

Alcoa reported adjusted EPS of $1.40 and revenue of $3.19 billion for Q1 2026, both slightly below analysts' expectations. The aluminium segment increased revenue and EBITDA; adjusted EBITDA rose sequentially to $595 million and net income improved significantly versus the prior quarter. The stock traded slightly higher after hours as management pointed to operational efficiency and adaptability amid global disruptions. Alcoa gave a cautious outlook and emphasized strategic initiatives on capital allocation and risk management. » More on de.investing.com

Alcoa completed a structural operational transformation—including $675 million in permanent cost savings, full ownership of AWAC and a strengthened balance sheet—which the report says makes it the highest-quality cyclical exposure to a potential aluminum supercycle. Versus peers Norsk Hydro and Century Aluminum, Alcoa is neither cheapest nor safest but combines vertical integration, improved margins and lower leverage to offer superior risk-adjusted upside if mid-cycle LME prices reach ~$2,700/tonne or higher. Normalized FCF at mid-cycle is estimated at $775m ($2.99/share), with upside from projects like San Ciprian and gallium and downside if prices fall or buybacks fail to offset a 45% share dilution. » More on investing.com