Rivian Automotive, Inc.

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Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) have retreated 9.1% over the past five trading sessions, reducing the stock’s year-to-date gain to 15.6%. After the recent first-quarter earnings report and downbeat guidance, some Wall Street analysts continue to downgrade the stock or decrease their price targets. Rivian, a prominent electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, is striving to regain momentum after its first-quarter earnings report on May 6. Despite surpassing Wall Street’s expectations with adjusted losses of $0.48 per share versus analyst expectations of $0.92 per share, and posting revenue of $1.24 billion compared to the $1.01 billion forecast, the stock fell almost 6% the next day, closing at $12.72 per share. This reflected a year-to-date loss of 4% and a 90% decline from its November 2021 IPO high. 24/7 Wall St. Key Points: The EV market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% through 2030, but Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) forecasts lower deliveries for 2025 than in 2024. After reporting first-quarter earnings, the company has now seen consecutive quarters of positive gross profit, and its cash position remains strong. If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. This report breaks down AI stocks with 10x potential and will give you a huge leg up on profiting from this massive sea change. Still, the stock has trended upward recently despite facing challenges from reduced delivery targets and tariff pressures. But it is countering those headwinds with cost efficiencies, strategic partnerships, and the anticipated R2 launch. 24/7 Wall St. conducted some analysis to give investors a better idea of where they can expect the stock to be in a year. Let’s take a look at whether Rivian can overcome its hurdles and return to growth. Why Invest in Rivian? Rivian is grappling with significant obstacles. First-quarter deliveries fell to 8,640 vehicles from 14,183 in the fourth quarter. A supply shortage in its Enduro motor system had an impact, and Los Angeles wildfires affected demand in a key market. The company lowered its 2025 delivery guidance to 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles from 46,000 to 51,000. It cited tariff uncertainties under the Trump administration, which could raise per-vehicle costs by thousands due to imported parts like steel, lithium-ion batteries, and rare earth minerals. The potential repeal of federal EV tax credits further threatens demand. Rivian is still losing a lot of money on every car it builds, even if it was able to reduce the per-share vehicle losses from $43,000 in Q4 to $38,798 in Q1. Moreover, it is likely car buyers front-loaded their purchases into the first quarter to beat any tariffs. Sales for the current quarter — and possibly the third quarter — could be weak. Still, a $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen, with $1 billion expected by June 2025, bolsters Rivian’s $7.2 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments. The R2, a $45,000 midsize SUV set for 2026 production in Illinois, targets broader appeal, while plant upgrades — including a planned month-long shutdown in the second half of 2025 — aim to boost efficiency by 30%. Further, the EV market is expected to grow at a 32% CAGR through 2030, though Rivian projects full-year 2025 revenue of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion, which at the midpoint is down from $4.97 billion last year. The hope is that the new R2 release and fleet sales could boost revenue further. For its part, Rivian has now seen consecutive quarters of positive gross profit. The EV maker just completed a 1.2 million sq. ft. manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, with plans for another facility in Georgia underway. That second facility could add an additional 400,000 units of annual capacity. As of the end of the first quarter, the company reported $7.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Rivian as a Company In its recent earnings call, Rivian reported $206 million of gross profit, making it the second consecutive quarter the company has seen positive gross profit figures. In order to address some challenges, the company also announced capex guidance of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion to help it address issues about its lagging deliverables. There are lingering concerns about how tariffs will impact Rivian, though. Material costs are expected to be elevated, equating to a few thousand dollars of impact per unit produced in 2025. Additionally, the company — despite seeing positive gross profit — has recorded adjusted EBITDA losses of $329 million, which it attributes to ongoing investment in R2 and key technologies. Despite the company manufacturing 100% of its vehicles in the U.S., tariff uncertainty presents a challenge to near-term growth prospects. But Rivian isn’t focusing strictly on individual consumers. In its first quarter, the company announced a partnership with HelloFresh, which has incorporated 70 Rivian Commercial Vans into its fleet. The endeavor marks the first major fleet customer for the EV maker since van sales opened more broadly earlier in 2025. Rivian as a Stock Since its 2021 IPO, Rivian’s stock has been volatile, soaring to $180 before crashing 90%. After hitting a low of $10.36 in April, it rebounded this month, supported by first-quarter gross profit and Volkswagen funding. The announcement by President Trump of a major new trade deal with the U.K. in early May caused the stock to jump, while the tariff pause agreement between the United States and China on May 11 resulted in another bump for the EV stock. Analyst sentiment remains cautious, with a consensus Hold rating from 28 analysts. Their average price target of $14.73 per share implies more than 4% downside. Targets range between $7.05 and $23.00 per share. Piper Sandler recently downgraded Rivian stock to Neutral, citing tariff risks. Wedbush lowered its target to $18 per share, though it is still optimistic about R2. Rivian’s cash reserves show it has money to keep from going out of business anytime soon. However, substantial, ongoing losses reflect the long-term profitability challenges it faces. Other analysts are more bullish, with Stifel’s Stephen Gengaro raising his price target to $18 from $16 and maintaining a Buy rating. According to Nasdaq.com, institutional investors hold 55.73% of the company’s outstanding shares. And 345 of them have recently increased their holdings, while 296 have decreased their holdings. Incidentally, the largest holder of Rivian stock is not Vanguard, BlackRock, or another financial services firm. It is Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), which holds more than 158 million shares. Estimate Price Target Change From Current Price Low $7.05 −54.0% Median $14.73 −4.2% High $23.00 49.6% Rivian’s cost efficiencies, gross profit milestone, and R2 launch position it for growth. Yet, tariff uncertainties beyond the U.K. deal and demand softness require investor caution. With 32% projected EV market growth and strategic partnerships, Rivian could achieve modest delivery gains in 2025. Its cash buffer and Volkswagen deal offer some stability, but execution risks remain. Rivian should only be considered a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors betting on its long-term EV market role. 24/7 Wall St.’s 12-month price target for Rivian Automotive is bearish at $13.20 per share. That represents 14.1% downside potential from the stock’s current price. Those figures are based on Rivian facing existing weakness in the EV market due to sales having been pulled forward into the first quarter and the new R2 not due out till next year. We see projected growth rates allowing revenue to rise from $4.8 billion in 2025 to $9.6 billion in 2030, alongside net losses improving from $4.69 per share in 2025 to break even by 2030. I Was About to Buy a Rivian, but These Eight Factors Scared Me Off The post Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) Stock Price Prediction for 2025: Where Will It Be in 1 Year appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..» Mehr auf 247wallst.com

Shares of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) gained 1.38% over the past five trading sessions, brining its one-month gain to an eye-catching 36.04% as the stock continues to rally back from disastrous losses in Q1. The recent gains have been welcomed by investors who have endured a year-do-date loss of 9.97% and seen the stock slip 28.82% since hitting its all-time high of $479.86 on Dec. 17, 2024. Buy-and-hold investors are hopeful the EV maker has found its bottom amid a highly volatile six-month stretch. But the recent rally in TSLA comes despite a poor earnings report in Q1 followed by collapsing sales figures in the U.S. and abroad. In early May, it was reported that Tesla has around $800 million worth of Cybertrucks stuck on lots. It was also reported this month that, in addition to collapsing sales in Europe broadly, Tesla has seen sales in Sweden plunges 80.7%. In April, it was reported that Tesla now accounts for fewer than 50% of EV sales in California. After absorbing enormous losses, Elon Musk’s EV empire fell outside of the $1 trillion club, but as of May 19, the company’s market cap stands at $1.09 trillion. Nonetheless, questions linger as to whether the company’s most ambitious of growth drivers (think Cybercab and Optimus humanoid robot, both of which were featured at the company’s robotaxi event last year) will bear fruit sooner rather than later. Indeed, Tesla’s stock has gone through vicious crashes before. And while the stock may not be ready to shift gears from reverse to forward, I do think that a worsening of its latest drawdown could prove a significant buying opportunity, given the chance its drivers could pay off at some point over the medium term. Undoubtedly, the bears may be winning the tug-of-war on the stock now, as Elon Musk’s role at DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) becomes old news as hype surrounding Musk’s friendship with Trump begins to fade. However, with EV competition mounting and a Jeff Bezos-backed startup entering the scene, Tesla’s outlook remains clouded. In any case, 24/7 Wall St. dove into the lengthy list of drivers and potholes that investors should look forward to (or fasten their seatbelts for) in the coming year and beyond. Let’s check out a bull, bear, and base case for the EV titan and have a glimpse at the varied viewpoints of multiple Wall Street pros. In fact, Tesla stock has a ton of table-pounding bulls in addition to massive bears. While not everyone is the biggest fan of Elon Musk, I do think it’s a mistake to discount his ability to keep running with the ball into the endzone with disruptive innovations that, while costly in the near term, could prove revolutionary over the longer term. Key Points in This Article: Tesla remains the leader of the EV revolution, dominating global market share despite the stock’s recent struggles. The company faces numerous headwinds, which could ultimately impact its long-term performance. If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps. Tesla’s Top Two Growth Drivers Are Still Humming Along For a stock that’s fallen significantly, I’d expect the growth narrative to have been severely impacted. Tesla’s latest quarterly earnings results were not incredible. Yet, I do think that the sell-off is mostly a mere correction to make up for the euphoric melt-up experienced in the back half of last year. Indeed, investors got too far ahead of themselves when it came to Tesla’s most ambitious growth drivers. Now that investors are taking a step back, we’ll have to wait and see if Tesla can advance such drivers meaningfully. Undoubtedly, Tesla has a front-row seat to the AI revolution. More specifically, it’s one of the frontrunners in physical AI (or robotics, if you prefer). In a prior piece, I highlighted Wall Street analyst Adam Jonas’ view that TSLA stock was akin to an embodied “AI ETF” given the numerous AI projects going on behind the scenes. Though Tesla’s AI efforts are exciting, it’s important to note that being too soon to a trend could have a drastic negative impact on the stock. As investors reset expectations and become more critical of how firms spend money on AI, Tesla will need to deliver more substance if it’s to convince investors to punch their ticket to the stock well ahead of time. Personally, I think Tesla’s been investing in the right areas, but will competitors beat Tesla to market in certain categories? The most notable drivers, I believe, that will drive Tesla stock in the coming years are the Cybertruck (as well as self-driving capabilities and the impact on the robotaxi market) and its Optimus robot. Of course, there’s also the rumored “Model Q” entry-level offering. But until we get more clarity on that driver, I consider it to be more of a “wild card.” Bull Case for Tesla’s Share Price Cybertruck: The Cybertruck stole the show during Tesla’s robotaxi event. While it would be a sci-fi dream for many to have a fairly reasonably priced robotaxi producing passive income for its owners, I do think Musk’s vision of the robotaxi future could be a reality within Trump’s term. Of course, a more realistic timeframe would put such a future more than 10 years out. However, if Tesla can floor it on full self-driving (FSD) efforts, perhaps such a future could be closer to the present. There’s a great deal of uncertainty with FSD, given the technical and regulatory unknowns. Either way, I view Musk’s friendship with Trump as a boon for a Cybertruck rollout under his administration. If Cybertruck expands its presence and becomes a hit within years rather than decades, TSLA stock could prove a bargain, given all that there is to gain. The big question, though, is how Cybercab will hold its own as Waymo pushes ahead with its impressive offering. Given robotaxis, like generative AI, are unlikely to be a “winner takes all” market, I think there’s no reason why both robotaxi offerings can’t win big from prime-time adoption of self-driving. Another big question to consider is whether consumers will be interested in buying up Cybercabs to have them rolling around on the streets as ride-hailers. I think the business could prove quite lucrative for buyers and Tesla’s margins over the long haul. After all, it can sell the car and continue to build a ride-hailing network while profiting from use of a ride-hailing app of sorts. Cathie Wood thinks autonomous ride-hailing could represent a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity. If Tesla can get a nice slice, Wood sees TSLA stock at $2,600 per share by 2029. Personally, I think the bull case (for the year ahead) could see TSLA at around $550 per share — or 100.19% higher than where the stock is trading today. That target is shared by Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, one of my favorite analysts in tech. Optimus: Optimus was a nice addition to the robotaxis event as it amused attendees. But the big question is how much potential the robot has once it’s ready to go on sale to the general public. Undoubtedly, Tesla isn’t the only one getting into the robotics game. Many Mag Seven members also investing heavily in home robots. While more rivals in home robots could be a threat to Optimus, I view it as more of a confirmation that there is a place in the home for such profound innovations. As for the home robotics market, I do see 2026 as a tad overly optimistic for a launch. However, if robot “friends” do arrive by 2030, I think Tesla’s growth rate could reaccelerate back to or even above 25% to 30% for some amount of time. Bear Case for Tesla’s Share Price Cybertruck: Undoubtedly, there’s still a lot of work to do before Cybertruck makes an impact on the car market. FSD capabilities need to step things up and the vehicle needs to be made in a way that won’t break the bank. These are big asks. Some bears have doubts about whether the firm can execute the opportunity. In late March, the company announced that it was recalling nearly every Cybertruck due to a potential crash risk. This was an enormous blow to Musk’s ambitions for the EV, which has already been subjected to harsh criticism about its perceived shortcomings among owners. Ross Gerber, who previously owned shares, has sold out with the view a 50% crash would be in store for 2025. He also thinks FSD “doesn’t work.” If true, that’s a gut punch to Tesla’s biggest growth driver. Either way, there’s not too much room lower with TSLA now off 40%. With Guggenheim labeling TSLA stock as a Sell with a $175 target, I’d brace for even more pain if the market sell-off intensifies. That price target represents additional downside potential of 36.30% from today’s share price. Bad Press: Musk’s deteriorated image at the hands of his federal government involvement with DOGE aside, Tesla has continued to bear the brunt of bad news. In late 2024, it was widely reported that the EV maker was the most dangerous vehicle brand, with the number of deaths among all automakers, according to the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety. According to the study, Tesla has a fatal accident rate of 5.6 per billion vehicle miles, compared to the overall average of just 2.8. Additionally, ongoing protests against the brand — including vandalism and arson — have occurred around the globe, from Italy and France to numerous states in the U.S. Optimus: Even if home robots are on the horizon, good luck asking consumers to spend thousands on a proven technology. Indeed, if Vision Pro taught us anything, it’s that being an early adopter is expensive and probably not the best use of funds. Either way, I’d much rather wait and see how the robot ambitions pan out before getting too excited at this stage. Insider & Institutional Activity: There’s an old adage on Wall Street that suggests investors should “follow the money.” If that’s the current case for Tesla, money is flowing out. In fact, over the past 12 years, no one single share of TSLA has been purchased by insiders (e.g., the company’s executives, directors or anyone who owns 10% or more of the company), according to Nasdaq.com. Data from Finviz supports this, even showing that Musk himself, as well as his brother, have been offloading shares since late 2024. Additionally, institutional ownership has now decreased to just 48.76%. In total, 479 institutional investors have entirely liquidated their Tesla positions, with 1,892 institutional holders having decreased their positions versus 2,015 who have increased them. Price Targets: In April, Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on Tesla to $260 from $275 while maintaining a neutral rating. The firm reduced its auto industry outlook and estimates, saying it will be difficult for the auto industry to fully pass on tariff costs, especially given softening consumer demand. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs’ one-year price target represents downside potential of 23.73% from today’s price. Increased competition: Also in April, a Jeff Bezos-backed EV company called Slate unveiled affordable EV truck and SUV models that cost $20,000 after federal incentives. The company has billed itself as the “anti-Tesla,” and is made in the U.S. As Tesla’s market share has fallen under 50% in EV-friendly California, the arrival of Slate could continue to erode sales. Base Case for Tesla’s Share Price The base case for Tesla lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Wall Street analysts have assigned TSLA a median one-year price target of $260 share, or 23.73% potential downside from today’s price. Meanwhile, the high-end target is $500 and the low-end target is $19.05. I’m inclined to view the $300 level as a fair-value level for the stock. Much of Tesla’s story depends on its big growth drivers. In the meantime, EV sales and the rise of more affordable models (Model Q) could be nearer-term stories to look forward to as one waits for the biggest of drivers to pay off. At the time of writing, TSLA stock goes for 176.56 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) and 9.58 times froward price-to-sales (P/S). That makes the name slightly undervalued, at least in my view. The post Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Bull, Base, & Bear Price Prediction and Forecast appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..» Mehr auf 247wallst.com